How to Track Liquor Variance & Stop Bar Shrinkage
Find out how much liquor is disappearing, where it's going, and simple habits that stop the leak.
Shrinkage is liquor you paid for that never turned into a sale. Variance is how you measure it: the gap between what you should have used and what actually left the shelf.
The 20% blind spot in bar inventory
Industry estimates put the average bar's liquor shrinkage at roughly 20% to 25% of its pourable inventory, lost to free pouring, unrung comps, spills, and theft. That means about one in every five bottles you buy never makes you money.
The good news is that the fix starts with counting. Bars that take regular, consistent inventory often bring liquor variance down into the low single digits, because loss you measure every week gets noticed and corrected fast. You don't need to change a single recipe to get that money back.
Step 1: Find your actual usage
Step 2: Find your expected usage
Expected usage is what your sales say you poured. Take the number of each drink sold and multiply by the recipe pour.
Step 3: Calculate the variance
A real example
| Item | Ounces |
|---|---|
| Starting count | 120 oz |
| Delivered | 254 oz |
| Ending count | 150 oz |
| Actual usage | 224 oz |
| Sold: 100 drinks × 2 oz | 200 oz |
| Variance | 24 oz (12%) |
That's 24 ounces of tequila with nothing to show for it. At $1.10 an ounce, about $26 a week from one bottle type, or more than $1,300 a year.
Common causes of shrinkage
- Over-pouring and free pouring
- Comps, staff drinks, and remakes that never get rung in
- Spills and broken bottles that aren't logged
- Counting mistakes and inconsistent partial-bottle estimates
- Theft
Simple ways to cut shrinkage
- Use jiggers or measured pours for every spirit.
- Log comps, spills, and remakes every shift.
- Count the same way every time, by the same people when possible.
- Count your most expensive bottles more often.
- Review variance with your team. Most people fix habits once they see the number.
How NIX86 handles it
We kept inventory simple—fill in your counts on either your phone or tablet. When you finish and close out the count, NIX86 sends a report to your team with your top discrepancies so everyone stays on the same page.
$74.99/month flat after your trial. No credit card to start.